For example, if there is a cornerback covering a receiver and a safety deep above him who matches the receiver's pattern much more than any other receiver, that receiver is credited with extra attention. Interestingly, among the three target depths, SOE on intermediate passes appears to be the most stable year to year. It wasn't noticeable in his box score stats as he averaged 92 yards and seven receptions per game. Will the Cowboys and Packers invest in more star power at receiver? For qualifying receivers, Open Score has a correlation coefficient of 0.61, where 1.0 would be perfect consistency and 0.0 would be no consistency at all. For each, a benchmark is set based on the context and dynamic inner workings of the play. Woods led all qualifying receivers in yards per route . Who are the potential sleepers of the 2023 NFL Draft? For example, YAC Score looks at the tracking data at the time of catch and makes a prediction of how many additional yards a receiver will typically make, based on the locations, directions and speeds of all 22 players. That means our models do have some sense of timing. Thomas caught 87.9 percent of his targets, landing in the top five in that category. Our new Receiver Tracking Metrics (RTMs) use player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats to analyze every route run -- including those that are untargeted -- and assess receiver performance in three distinct phases: getting open, contesting and making the catch, and generating yards after the catch (YAC). If a completion occurs, the receiver is credited with the marginal difference. And compared to Atlantas Julio Jones a receiver whose natural talent and skill set are rarely questioned Thomas comes out ahead on both our separation and value metrics. REC. From the perspective of the receiver, however, he is a primary and direct influence on that very context. It wasn't his frame but his footwork -- a fake outside, an adjustment upfield and a sharp cut at the top of the route -- that created the space necessary for a 51-yard catch-and-run on that play. A receiver can win with inside leverage against an outside corner who is trying to keep him from going deep, leaving the defender in the dust as he runs across the field at a shallow depth. The Next Gen Stats Team uses its draft model to identify the five best value picks in Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft -- including two Georgia defenders selected by the Philadelphia Eagles. There are important modifications to this calculation, which I'll detail below. It is highly recommended that you use the latest versions of a supported browser in order to receive an optimal viewing experience. Fortunately for our analysis, Yards per Route Run can be broken down into two metrics: Yards per Target and Targets per Route Run. For example, if the tracking data indicates a pass will be completed 75% of the time and the receiver actually catches the pass, he is credited with plus-0.25. ESPN Stats & Information Group. What about Yards per Target? With so many yards and an average YAC score, those yards must have been from deep or contested low-probability routes: How about Open Score? Specifically, Atlanta ranks 11th-lowest in dropbacks per game over the past three seasons, while Houston, Pittsburgh, and the Giants all rank higher. Seriously, though, it can't be much of a surprise to see these three players at the top for this route. Atlanta and the Rams ranked 11th- and seventh-lowest, respectively, in passing plays per game, which helped raise the rankings of their receivers here despite total targets not being especially high. He grew up in Sanford, Florida, where he shined as a receiver for Seminole highschool. Still, it's encouraging to have a strong correlation with real-world production. [deleted] 2 yr. ago. Future iterations of the model will look to delve deeper into the route tree to account for the nuance of route-running at the pro level. In other words, the regression thinks Johnsons much more likely to maintain his elite TPRR than Stills is to maintain his elite Y/T. So we need to account for depth of target and how far the QB had to throw the ball when we apportion credit for the separation a receiver got on a given play. Find out more. Were there any indicators that could have pointed to such a breakout? Can Carolina risk letting other teams chase after him? Playing with Drew Brees a former Super Bowl MVP who holds the NFL record for highest career completion percentage, most career passing yards and most career passing touchdowns certainly doesnt hurt. It's pretty simple: Thomas wins in the short game and will make you pay if you don't stop him. It's hard to argue these aren't dominant seasons by elite receivers. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. After spending some time looking at our route data, I wanted to highlight a few of my favorite metrics that Ive found. Below are a few tables showing the breakdown and thresholds used during this process. The assessment takes place a moment before pass release (0.2 seconds prior), because defenders read the shoulders of the quarterback at release and break on the targeted receiver. Receiving stats on short passes for Michael Thomas, including separation over expected (SOE) and expected points added (EPA) per play. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have become quite proficient at the QB sneak. @friscojosh, NFL (976 posts) While sixteen of the wide receivers saw at least 80% of their teams passing snaps [6]Note: A couple of wide receivers have more pass routes than their teams had pass plays. 38) Yards Per Route Run. jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_5').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_5', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); and Johnson at 1.58 YPRR. While it is certainly vital to look at the broader picture, it is clear that yards per route run is a metric you need to incorporate into your fantasy football vernacular. If you are simply a box score watcher, nothing about Chris Godwins rookie season would have gotten you excited. Best and worst receiver seasons on short passes as measured by separation over expected (SOE) per play, 2017-19. The Chief's quarterback is not a particularly accurate thrower, but he helps his targets get open. There are various versions of this metric -- and it is quite useful in some applications -- but there is a fatal flaw when applying the concept to pass-catchers, as tempting as it might be. Explore sample . Now, by itself, that doesn't make Targets per Route . Unlike running backs, weight and height are correlated to wide receiver and tight end production, because height expands the player's catch radius. I suppose one counter to that would be that Stills was competing with Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, and the Saints obsession with throwing passes to running backs, while Johnson was competing with, While there are some issues with survivorship bias here, Im not sure (1) how to get around them, and (2) that those concerns bias the results in a way thats more biased towards one of. 4) Stefon Diggs, Vikings (now with Bills), 72) Ted Ginn Jr., Saints (now with Bears), The most targeted routes outside of the WR Screen? Those numbers came in garbage time against Seattle and against Detroit and Washington, so they should be taken with a grain of salt. Michael Thomas (3). There is a 33% increase in the number of WR1/WR2 seasons for a wide receiver that hit 2.00 yards per route run when he also ran a minimum of 250 routes in his rookie year. jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_3').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_3', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); But it is interesting to know, and it is useful in making predictions. Of course, when comparing Stills numbers to Johnsons, one might note that Johnson was playing with EJ Manuel and Thaddeus Lewis while Stills was playing with Drew Brees, which provides some explanation for the drastic differences between the two receivers in yards per target. AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ja'Marr Chase. In fact, if we instituted a minimum of, say, 15 receptions on out routes, only DeAndre Hopkins (86.4%) and Calvin Ridley (80%) even come close to Thomas' catch rate. Two tight ends Evan Engram of the New York Giants and Zach Ertz of the Philadelphia Eagles top the list of receiver seasons with the highest separation over expected on short throws (5 air yards or less).5 Ertzs targets especially were high value. Below, we'll reveal the top three receivers for eight different routes, and tell you why the No. 1:08 PM. Brown such a special talent? Go to Ratings. Thomas isnt in the same class as Adams and Allen when it comes to creating separation Adams has averaged over a half-yard of SOE the past two years on intermediates routes but despite the tighter windows, the expected value Thomas created on these targets ranks him among the best in the league on a per-play basis. Year-over-year r-squared of 0.13, n = 53 player season pairs from 2017-2019. You won't want to miss a moment of the 2023 season! Previous post: Worst Passer Ratings In Every Year Since the Merger, Next post: The Top Quarterbacks And The Receivers They Threw It To. Looking at this historical data and also pairing it with metrics such as draft capital, breakout age, college dominator, etc. Which prospects selected in Rounds 2 and 3 project to be steals? This speaks greatly to Bells value as a fantasy asset. But he also led the league with 254 routes run during this time, a per-game increase of 56% compared to his first ten games. The following browsers are supported: Chrome, Edge (v80 and later), Firefox and Safari. ranked him first among all wide receivers, creates and maintains separation from a defender, the conversation for best receiver in the league. Do you have a blog? He was historically productive in 2019, in large part because he is excellent in the short game on routes like the cross (a.k.a. Stefon Diggs can make the seemingly impossible a reality. An offense is going to try to do whatever it can to get the ball in the hands of its best players, and Thomas fits the bill, as do DeAndre Hopkins and Amari Cooper (Nos. All three components generally work the same way. Cooper Kupp demonstrates some WR Drills to improve release, route running & creating separation in this edition of The Nike 11-Online Virtual Training Series. Quarterbacks sometimes can make receivers look good, but sometimes it's the other way around. Gabriel Davis is a wide receiver for the Buffalo Bills. 2022 season stats. Latest on Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on ESPN Thomas caught 87.9 percent of his targets, landing in the top five in that category. Do Not Sell My Personal Information, Next Up - 2023 Superflex Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings (Fantasy Football), 189 K. Are you looking to contact Customer Support about a subscription or account related question? We think this also makes sense. If what RTMs measure are truly intrinsic to each individual receiver, then receivers should carry these qualities from year to year. Only Terry McLaurin was as productive in the scoring department on post routes as Diggs (three TDs apiece), which is why the Washington receiver makes the top three in this group. In his second season as a pro -- and first in head coach Kliff Kingsbury's offense -- the Cardinals' Christian Kirk ranked as the most versatile route runner of the 2019 season. at 32 lingering post-draft questions: Will Lions have regrets? Find out who the leaders are in standard scoring formats and see which players are available in your fantasy football league. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. Keegan Abdoo meticulously explains how this could significantly impact Andy Reid's offense -- and fuel Lou Anarumo's defense. 300 routes run). Tired of Thomas yet? The best fit formula is: N+1 Yd/Tar = 5.84 + 0.28 * Yr N Yd/Tar (R^2 = 0.08). For instance, short passes are, on average, associated with more separation than deeper passes because a defenders top priority is to avoid getting beat deep. NFL.com's Nick Shook takes a look at the top receivers of 2019 by route type. Advanced stats offer insight into a Wide Receiver's performance beyond the standard box score. Finally, we see the continued effect of depth of target on separation. The model was trained and validated against all routes from every passing play from 2018 and '19, including both the regular season and the postseason. NFL and the NFL shield design are registered trademarks of the National Football League.The team names, logos and uniform designs are registered trademarks of the teams indicated. Latest on Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on ESPN . The Next Gen Stats analytics team identifies 14 unheralded players who should be kept off the free agency market by their squads. AP MVP: Aaron Rodgers. The Giants Jerrel Jernigan not only had a 66% catch rate thats excellent for someone playing with the 2013 version of Eli Manning but he was targeted on a remarkable 28% of his routes in 2013! Since 2018, ESPN has introduced pass-rush, run-stop, pass-block and run-block player metrics. Davante Adams, Packers (6-1, 215 pounds) Adams, 28, came back from an injury-curbed season to light it up as big-time scorer again in 2020 setting a career high . 1 in the latest NFL Football Power Index? How will Patrick Mahomes' ankle injury factor into Sunday's AFC championship rematch between the Chiefs and Bengals? Conventional counting stats like receptions and receiving yards provide a way to measure an individual player's ability to catch and move the football, but they only tell part of the story. The defense is typically willing to allow an offense to throw to wide-open players short, then rally to make a tackle for a short gain. For example, why did only 11 of 12 wide receivers drafted since 2010 that ran 250 routes and had at least 2.00 yards per route run during their rookie years find future success? Among running backs, he ranks third in rushing fantasy points per game and first in receiving fantasy points per game. It is highly recommended that you use the latest versions of a supported browser in order to receive an optimal viewing experience. Since the only difference between YPRR and Y/T is the metric targets per route run, its worth asking: is Targets Per Route Run a metric worth looking at? At the time, Jernigan had barely seen the field, so he hadnt run many routes, either. Those types of opportunities vaulted Brown up this list. D'Onta Foreman thrived with the Panthers in 2022. 25 games played) he ranks 29th in receiving fantasy points per game. Subscribe:iTunes|Google Play|Spotify|Stitcher|SoundCloud|TuneIn|RSS. Our new Route Recognition model leverages this data as inputs into a model that assigns a route type to every eligible receiver on every pass play, including tight ends and running backs. RTMs account for who's throwing the pass in two ways: We adjust the Catch Score and the part of the Open Score that assesses openness at pass arrival based on the quarterback. 43), 11.5 (No. Dividing total receiving yards recorded by the number of routes run in a given game, season, career, etc. The metrics measure the degree to which the receiver exceeds or falls short of that benchmark. Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Cardinals tight end Ricky Seals-Jones celebrates after catching a pass for a second quarter touchdown against the Jacksonville Jaguars at University of Phoenix Stadium. We've discussed Thomas' ability until we're nearly blue in the face -- although cardio while masked seems to have improved this writer's lung capacity -- but we're tasked with justifying one final appearance atop a list of excellent route runners. The story of the Cowboys scout and prospect son Dallas just drafted, Legacy pick: Cardinals take great-great-nephew of team's first-ever draft pick, Big takeaways from ESPN's new pass-catcher stats: A.J. AVG . Since 2017, the overall score correlates with Pro Football Reference's Approximate Value stat at 0.68, with EA Madden's player rating at 0.59 and Pro Football Focus' receiving grade at 0.76. Number of WRs w/ at least one WR1 Season + > 250 routes run during rookie year w/ at least 20 targets, Number of WRs w/ at least one WR1 season w/ at least 20 targets during rookie year (no minimum route run threshold). Contextualizing routes at the league-wide level gives a macro look into the value of route classification. Find updated NFL wide receiver stats including season-long and weekly totals for receptions, targets, TDs, and more on LINEUPS.com How will Patrick Mahomes' ankle injury factor into Sunday's AFC championship rematch between the Chiefs and Bengals? (Again, no one doubts Joness talent or skills, and both he and Thomas are consistently in the conversation for best receiver in the league.). And there is a pretty clear answer to that question. I believe player profile has them too. Introducing Receiver Tracking Metrics: How our new NFL stats can better rate pass-catchers, Fantasy football rankings for 2023 season, 10 fantasy football breakout players for 2023, Broncos pick up Jeudy's 5th-year rookie option, Bills ink vet Murray after passing on RBs in draft, Source: Ravens decline LB Queen's 2024 option, LB Barrett's 2-year-old daughter drowns in pool, Bengals' Ossai recovering from offseason surgery, Deion 'ashamed' after only 1 HBCU player drafted, Sources: NFL eyes May 11 to release schedule, Cowboys scout emotional as team drafts his son. This site rocks the Classic Responsive Skin for Thesis. The numbers that propelled Thomas to the top here were his yards, of course, but also his efficiency. Stat Format. He led the league lead in catch rate above expectation (actual catch percentage compared to expected catch percentage), but among the top 25 wide receivers in that category (minimum 50 targets), he's the only one who averaged fewer than 10 air yards per target (8.1). He was close to unseating Thomas and very well could take the next major step in his third NFL season. Each score is on a 0-99 scale, where 50 is roughly league average. Now, by itself, that doesnt make Targets per Route Run a good metric. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have become quite proficient at the QB sneak. He is unlikely to see the field in 2014, and will almost certainly go down as a colossal bust. Brown, and Hunter Renfrow all ran at least 250 routes while also having at least 2.00 yards per route run. Which prospects selected in Rounds 2 and 3 project to be steals? The Next Gen Stats Team uses its draft model to identify the five best value picks in Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft -- including two Georgia defenders selected by the Philadelphia Eagles. With hitches, there's some uncertainty for cornerbacks: Is their man running a hitch or is it going to be a go (or fade) route? Last season there were 32 wide receivers to run at least 300 routes and draw a target on at least 20 percent of their routes. 2023 Superflex Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings (Fantasy Football), 2023 Dynasty Rookie Rankings (Fantasy Football), Fantasy Football Rankings: Dynasty Trade Value Chart (May 2023 Update), Dynasty Rookie Draft Primer: Quarterbacks (2023 Fantasy Football), Dynasty Rookie Sleepers: UDFAs (2023 Fantasy Football), Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Superflex, 4 Rounds (2023 Fantasy Football), Best Ball Strategy & Advice: Late-Round Quarterback (2023 Fantasy Football), Copyright 2010- FantasyPros.com No, I'm a California resident looking for the California Consumer Privacy Act form. For example, we can see that A.J. Each of the three components are weighted in a way to best match real-world production, specifically a blend of predominantly yards per route with a bit of yards per target added. The problem is we would be measuring receiver success accounting for the dynamic context of what is happening on the field. Thomas wins the yardage battle between the two (382 to 318), helping us find some separation between a couple of receivers that are incredibly dangerous when running shallow routes over the middle. He may be a bust, but it wasnt because of what he did on the field. HaSS layers height into the traditional speed score equation by also dividing the player's height by the average wide receiver height: 73.0 inches (6'1") or average tight end height: 76.4 . His opponents surely are, but you can't say they weren't warned: Thomas makes it clear with his Twitter handle that he can't be guarded. Among those top 25 receivers, no receiver was pressed at a higher rate at the line than Thomas (42%), and only one was pressed as much: Stefon Diggs. The overall score correlates at 0.52. It is also important to keep an eye on the changing landscape that is the NFL. Logos were compiled by the amazing SportsLogos.net. Perhaps because of his success, Thomas has seen a steady increase in the number of targets at those depths. NOTE: The two players ranked below who changed teams this offseason -- Bills WR Stefon Diggs and Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins -- are listed with the teams they played for last season, since these rankings are based on their performance in 2019. Stat Type. Of note, this is one of Patrick Mahomes' superpowers. Jones never hit a 90-percent snap share last year and reached 80 percent of his teams snaps in only seven of 16 games. Here are the top-five seasons since 2017: The top-rated players mostly match our intuitive sense of great receivers, but there are more concrete ways of determining the usefulness of metrics. Of those, one was Atlantas Julio Jones, who ran routes on 93% of Atlantas passing plays through the first five games of the year, but missed the final eleven with a fractured foot. Gaining insight into how they either excel or underperform could tell us which are ready to break out, if they were just targeted more often, and which receivers are making their quarterback look better than they actually are. Who are the potential sleepers of the 2023 NFL Draft? Who is No. D'Onta Foreman thrived with the Panthers in 2022. Running backs saw a 0.87 correlation between raw touches and fantasy points. Of Thomas' league-leading 299 yards gained on slants, 162 came after the catch. Mike Band uses the Next Gen Stats Draft Model to spotlight six enticing individuals: three on offense and three on defense. TD. Source: NFL Next Gen Stats, ESPN Stats & Information Group. No, I'm a California resident looking for the California Consumer Privacy Act form. On the other hand, Davante Adams only achieved .96 yards per route run during his rookie year but has blossomed into one of the top dynasty wide receiver assets. NFL wide receiver rankings 2021. Simply put, no one was more prolific on the go route than Parker. PFF's Fantasy Football Expected Points tool is primarily used for identifying potential over and undervalued players.